HUH?
US Recession by Falling Oil

Well, it's not allll that simple, and James Hamilton over at Econobrowser posits that falling oil prices alone may only be culpable in triggering regional recessions (think oil production heavy economies, like Texas, or North Dakota).

Prof. Hamilton starts out by quoting < Donald Luskin's Jan 7th article in the ( Read more... )

CNBC (Article by Financial Times)
Britain Must Escape Its Longest DepressionThe current UK depression will be the longest since at least the first world war. Without a dramatic surge in growth, it is also quite likely to generate a bigger cumulative loss of output than the “great depression”. All this is disturbing enough. What is even more ( Read more... )

by Gaius Publius on 8/12/2011 07:08:00 PM

Thanks to the St. Louis Fed's new ability to make data-charting easier, Paul Krugman shows us a graph of the tragic waste in the current U.S. economy. The blue line is potential GDP. The red line is actual GDP.

The gap between the black horizontal lines on the chart is half a ( Read more... )

More vindication for those of you who have been saying that a "new" recession right now would merely be a continuation of the Great Recession:

• Q1 Revised down from up 1.9% to merely up 0.4%
• Revision shows GDP is actually still lower today than at start of Great Recession
  
• So, a "new" recession now would actually be a technical "Double Dip" of same ( Read more... )

Atlanta Federal Reserve Blog (Macroblog)
Is the employment report a game changer?
Well, that was an unpleasant surprise. Anyway you cut it, the June employment report was a big disappointment. (If by chance you are inclined to doubt that, the Wall Street Journal's Real Time Economics blog rounds up representative commentary from the ( Read more... )

• 1st quarter US GDP disappoints even more-so than first estimated
• Seven quarters of growth & still only modest improvement to large GDP gap
• Initial Unemployment Claims continue deteriorating, pointing to potential downside to May payrolls
• Housing double dip threatens to usher in a brand new economic death spiral
• QE3 on the table?

ZeroHedge.com
Goldman Q1 GDP Imminent Downgrade Warning Gets Louder:
"Significant Downside Risk To Our Q1 GDP Estimate Of +3.5% "

...From Jan Hatzius' instanalysis on Personal Consumption data.
1. Nominal consumer spending increased by 0.7% mom in February, but part of the large increased reflected price gains. Real consumer spending increased by 0 ( Read more... )

While much pain and suffering left in the wake of the Great Recession remains, the economy continues to mend. US Gross Domestic Product, after having slowed down during the spring and summer of this year, is back on a tear, and the risk of a technical double dip recession is now over; any further downturn would be considered a completely separate ( Read more... )

From Recession Over, but Pain Persists


( Read more... )